Assuming the Nasdaq stays in the historical "Mania Channel" of past bubbles -- an admittedly big "If" -- the pattern suggests that a potential move downwards (late 2005/early 2006) of as much as 25 - 33% is quite possible.
And that's not even the bad news (we'll get to that later). The good news is that from those lows, the Nasdaq could potentially double, rising up to nearly 3,000 late in 2007; The bad news (you knew it was coming) is that from those dizzying heights, the down side is horrific: The chart suggests we may visit, if not surpass, the post-bubble lows.
That is, according to the historical composite of previous bubbles.
Not quite the Bu$h Boom the Wrepublicans have in mind... but I guess the issue is which Wrepublicans you ask.
I can think of a few that would perfectly happy with this result.
Just another Reality-based bubble in the foam of the multiverse.
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