Just another Reality-based bubble in the foam of the multiverse.

Thursday, August 16, 2007

Zombie Markets Eat Your Brain First and Then Your Wallet



Nouriel Roubini, via Atrios:

...First, you take a bunch of shaky and risky subprime mortgages and repackage them into residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS); then you repackage these RMBS in different (equity, mezzanine, senior) tranches of cash CDOs that receive a misleading investment grade rating by the credit rating agencies; then you create synthetic CDOs out of the same underlying RMBS; then you create CDOs of CDOs (or squared CDOs) out of these CDOs; and then you create CDOs of CDOs of CDOs (or cubed CDOs) out of the same murky securities; then you stuff some of these RMBS and CDO tranches into SIV (structured investment vehicles) or into ABCP (Asset Backed Commercial Paper) or into money market funds. Then no wonder that eventually people panic and run - as they did yesterday – on an apparently “safe” money market fund such as Sentinel. That “toxic waste” of unpriceable and uncertain junk and zombie corpses is now emerging in the most unlikely places in the financial markets.




Haven't I seen her on Fox News?

...Second example: today any wealthy individual can take $1 million and go to a prime broker and leverage this amount three times; then the resulting $4 million ($1 equity and $3 debt) can be invested in a fund of funds that will in turn leverage these $4 millions three or four times and invest them in a hedge fund; then the hedge fund will take these funds and leverage them three or four times and buy some very junior tranche of a CDO that is itself levered nine or ten times. At the end of this credit chain, the initial $1 million of equity becomes a $100 million investment out of which $99 million is debt (leverage) and only $1 million is equity. So we got an overall leverage ratio of 100 to 1. Then, even a small 1% fall in the price of the final investment (CDO) wipes out the initial capital and creates a chain of margin calls that unravel this debt house of cards. This unraveling of a Minskian Ponzi credit scheme is exactly what is happening right now in financial markets.




Nothing to see here! Shuffle along, shuffle along. Until you find some more easy money, anyway.

The problem being, that even though it's tough to have sympathy with the members of Bu$hie's zombie ba$e who can no longer float multimillion dollar loan scams that run up the costs of everything, these undead are so firmly entwined with the 'Merikan economic system that any attempt to toss them in their graves with their consumerist lifestyles will entangle you, your family, and your little dog, too.

I hear headshots of rational dialog work, but some of these individuals are so acerebral, it's hard to find a locus to communicate with. And then there are those who simply live with their heads up their asses.

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